CAS COTOR Challenge


The CAS Committee on Theory of Risk (COTOR) is pleased to announce Round 4 of the COTOR Challenge. The complete Round 4 announcement on the CAS Web Site includes the history of Rounds 1-3 of the challenge and the description of Round 4, which promises to be the most "challenging" challenge to date.


The announcement which includes a link to download the spreadsheet with claim data, can be found here.


Challenge winners will be selected by a committee of COTOR members. Criteria will include accuracy of the estimate, use of an interesting and innovative approach, clarity of the description, as well as ease of use of the approach. Winners will be asked to present their approach in person at the 2006 CAS Annual Meeting, scheduled for November 12-15, 2006 in San Francisco, California.


The deadline for submission of responses to the challenge is October 15, 2006. Please submit your response to A brief description of the approach (a paragraph or two) should accompany your solution to the problem. Spreadsheets containing examples of the calculation are welcome.